Applications
Scenario planning, applied where it matters
One structured method, three use cases: from identifying threats early to strategies that hold under uncertainty and disclosure that stands up to scrutiny.
Risk management
Effective risk management starts with identifying threats before they become critical. Scenario analysis surfaces risks that would otherwise go unnoticed and pairs each with a clear, actionable response: mitigate, transfer, or accept.
Strategy
A static plan isn’t enough. By testing strategy against a range of climate, market, and regulatory futures, scenario planning helps you anticipate risks, uncover opportunities, and build strategies that are robust today and adaptable as conditions evolve.
Reporting
Climate scenario analysis is now embedded in mandatory disclosure worldwide: CSRD, ISSB, TCFD, TNFD, CDP. My proven method does more than just meet compliance standards, it turns regulatory obligations into insight your business can act on.
The Climate Resilience Cycle
A six-step approach for structured scenario analysis
Published research, applied in practice. Original publication by Huiskamp, ten Brinke & Kramer (2022).
Set out with a clear goal in mind
Leverage the most recent scientific models and insights
Focus on what is relevant for your company
Develop narratives that engage decision makers
Use the company, industry and market knowledge of your own managers
Act only on what’s material
Success factors
What makes scenario analysis work
From my research on and application of scenario analysis at a range of companies, I found four factors that decide whether it delivers the results you're looking for.
Formulate a clear goal before you start
Foster a feeling of engagement and ownership
Generate decision-useful information
Make sure it’s repeatable and replicable
References
Applied across industries
From food and ingredients to construction, publishing and mobility.
Let’s talk about your future
Uncertainty isn’t an excuse for inaction. It’s the reason to model every path. Let's explore your future together.
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